Moves with Bitcoin
Which stocks and ETFs go up and down with bitcoin, in percent? Something that moves exactly with BTC has a flat price in sats: if BTC rises 5% and the share rises 5%, it still costs the same number of sats. Pick a time window; 1 year is the most reliable guide to the next few months.
What "flat in sats" means
A share's price in sats is its dollar price divided by bitcoin's. In percent terms, its daily change in sats is (roughly) its change in dollars minus bitcoin's. So a spot bitcoin ETF, which owns a fixed amount of BTC per share, barely moves in sats: it only drifts down by its fee (IBIT: about −0.25% a year). A 2x bitcoin fund moves twice as much: in sats it swings as much as bitcoin does in dollars. Cash, or a stock that ignores bitcoin, does the same in reverse: it's "volatile" in sats because bitcoin is.
Correlation alone isn't enough: a stock can follow BTC's direction every day (correlation near 1) but by half as much (beta 0.5) and still fall in sats whenever BTC rises. Flat in sats needs both correlation ≈ 1 and beta ≈ 1.
The numbers
- Correlation
- of the share's returns in dollars with BTC's, from −1 (opposite) through 0 (unrelated) to 1 (same direction every time).
- Beta
- how big its moves are relative to BTC's: beta 1.5 means +1.5% on a day BTC gains 1%, on average.
- Sats vol
- the volatility of its price in sats (yearly standard deviation of its returns in sats, = its tracking error versus BTC). 0% = perfectly flat.
- Score
100 × (max(0, corr) + min(beta, 1/beta) + max(0, 1 − satsVol / btcVol)) / 3: 100 = moves exactly like BTC, 50 ≈ a 2x fund or a bitcoin miner, ~10-25 = the S&P 500, 0 = inverse funds.
Returns are log returns of daily closes (30D, 90D, 1Y) or of each week's last close (3Y, 5Y: less noise over long spans), split-adjusted, dividends not included. Each close is paired with BTC/USD at the same moment, the 16:00 New York close (Coinbase hourly candles); weekends and holidays are skipped, so a Friday-to-Monday return is compared with BTC's move over the same 72 hours. A window needs 90% of its sessions (recent listings show "since"). ⚠ = the window includes a one-day move beyond −40%/+67%, often a spin-off the data isn't adjusted for. Recomputed daily after the close. Correlation describes the past, not a promise about the future.